Reducing discrepancies in ground and satellite-observed eruption heights   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Andrew Tupper  Rick Wunderman   《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2009,186(1-2):22

The plume height represents a crucial piece of evidence about an eruption, feeding later assessment of its size, character, and potential impact, and feeding real-time warnings for aviation and ground-based populations. There have been many observed discrepancies between different observations of maximum plume height for the same eruption. A comparison of maximum daily height estimates of volcanic clouds over Indonesia and Papua New Guinea during 1982–2005 shows marked differences between ground and satellite estimates, and a general tendency towards lower height estimates from the ground. Without improvements in the quality of these estimates, reconciled among all available methods, warning systems will be less effective than they should be and the world's record of global volcanism will remain hard to quantify. Examination of particular cases suggests many possible reasons for the discrepancies. Consideration of the satellite and radar cloud observations for the 1991 Pinatubo eruptions shows that marked differences can exist even with apparently good observations. The problem can be understood largely as a sampling issue, as the most widely reported parameter, the maximum cloud height, is highly sensitive to the frequency of observation. Satellite and radar cloud heights also show a pronounced clumping near the height of the tropopause and relative lack of eruptions reaching only the mid-troposphere, reinforcing the importance of the tropopause in determining the eruption height in convectively unstable environments. To reduce the discrepancies between ground and satellite estimates, a number of formal collaboration measures between vulcanological, meteorological and aviation agencies are suggested.  相似文献   

Improved prediction and tracking of volcanic ash clouds   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Peter Webley  Larry Mastin   《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2009,186(1-2):1

During the past 30 years, more than 100 airplanes have inadvertently flown through clouds of volcanic ash from erupting volcanoes. Such encounters have caused millions of dollars in damage to the aircraft and have endangered the lives of tens of thousands of passengers. In a few severe cases, total engine failure resulted when ash was ingested into turbines and coating turbine blades. These incidents have prompted the establishment of cooperative efforts by the International Civil Aviation Organization and the volcanological community to provide rapid notification of eruptive activity, and to monitor and forecast the trajectories of ash clouds so that they can be avoided by air traffic. Ash-cloud properties such as plume height, ash concentration, and three-dimensional ash distribution have been monitored through non-conventional remote sensing techniques that are under active development. Forecasting the trajectories of ash clouds has required the development of volcanic ash transport and dispersion models that can calculate the path of an ash cloud over the scale of a continent or a hemisphere. Volcanological inputs to these models, such as plume height, mass eruption rate, eruption duration, ash distribution with altitude, and grain-size distribution, must be assigned in real time during an event, often with limited observations. Databases and protocols are currently being developed that allow for rapid assignment of such source parameters. In this paper, we summarize how an interdisciplinary working group on eruption source parameters has been instigating research to improve upon the current understanding of volcanic ash cloud characterization and predictions. Improved predictions of ash cloud movement and air fall will aid in making better hazard assessments for aviation and for public health and air quality.  相似文献   

广汉机场一次非典型辐射平流雾的天气诊断分析     

王钦  曾波  吴俊杰 《成都信息工程学院学报》2013,(5):537-542

为探索广汉机场雾发生发展的机制,确保飞行安全,提高预报准确率,利用广汉机场地面观测资料、Mi—caps系统下的常规观测资料、探空资料和NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,采用天气诊断分析方法,对2012年11月13日-15日广汉机场持续性的辐射平流雾进行分析。结果表明,雾是在稳定的天气背景下形成。夜间地面长波辐射冷却触发了这次雾的形成,而在轻雾转大雾期间,地面长波辐射冷却作用明显减弱,低层暖湿平流则起到了主要作用。与典型辐射平流雾不同的是成雾后,机场由脊前西北气流转为南支槽前西南气流控制,天空中云量的迅速增加使得雾进一步加强。  相似文献   

基于整体最小二乘的稳健点云数据平面拟合   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

官云兰  刘绍堂  周世健  张立亭  鲁铁定 《大地测量与地球动力学》2011,31(5):80-83

针对点云数据平面拟合方法没有完整考虑测量数据中的误差及系数阵中误差的情况,提出稳健整体最小二乘点云数据平面拟合方法。该法以整体最小二乘法为基础,在考虑全部观测量存在误差的情况下,通过一定的准则删除数据中的粗差或异常值,从而获得稳健的平面参数估值。实验中,分别利用最小二乘法、特征值法和稳健整体最小二乘拟合法对仿真点云数据和真实点云数据进行平面拟合,结果显示该法能克服异常值的影响,得到可靠的平面参数估值,具有稳健性。  相似文献   

东北冷涡积层混合云系形成条件的个例分析          下载免费PDF全文

王涛  齐彦斌  王东  王贵军 《气象与环境学报》2010,26(5):7-12

利用2003年7月7—8日NCEP/NCAR资料和地面高空常规探测资料,利用客观分析的方法,研究了东北冷涡积层混合云系形成的环境条件。结果表明：这一冷涡天气系统是由北部和南部两个低压系统组成,而且均比较深厚,有明显低温区配合。东北地区的降水主要受南部的低压系统影响。该系统有气旋性环流配合,在气旋中心区、气流辐合区和气旋东南侧西南气流中均存在相对湿度高于80%的湿度区。湿度区中含有湿度高于90%的区域,积层混合云系产生在这个区域内,而且降水区与系统的不稳定区和动力场辐合区配合一致。研究表明,东北冷涡天气系统中积层混合云系是在冷涡系统东南部的西南气流中形成的,水汽输送条件较好,而且有高湿不稳定区配合,对研究其生成和发展有指示意义。  相似文献   

软岩厚度对层状顶板破坏特征影响分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄旭  马念杰  贾安立  成彦惠  孙即超 《岩土力学》2007,28(2):343-346

顶板冒落是煤矿生产的五大灾害之一。顶板冒落主要与顶板岩层性质、赋存状态等因素有关,其中软弱岩层赋存的厚度变化是顶板冒落的主要原因之一。利用东北大学岩石破裂过程分析系统（RFPA2D）,针对煤矿沉积岩层顶板破坏进行力学分析,并对赋存不同厚度软岩的层状顶板的破坏情况进行了数值计算。探讨了不同厚度的软弱岩层对巷道稳定性的影响,得出了不同厚度软弱岩层在巷道开挖后的破坏过程和最后冒落的形状,提出了对不同厚度软弱岩层的层状顶板巷道有针对性的支护措施。该结果对现场施工和试验具有重要的参考价值。  相似文献   

科左后旗甘镇一次龙卷风的天气过程分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

严华  董长海 《内蒙古气象》2011,(6):18-19

利用卫星云图分析和总结龙卷风相伴随的中小尺度云团的发生、发展过程,对于今后分析和预报强对流天气有可能形成龙卷风有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

四川汉源黑区-雪区层状铅锌矿床典型矿石组构与成因   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

林方成 《矿床地质》2005,24(2):122-133

作者通过对黑区-雪区矿床深入的野外考察、典型矿石组构的显微鉴定、矿石化学成分测试研究后认为,与区域内广泛分布的MVT型矿床相对比,黑区-雪区矿床存在诸多明显不同的特征,主要为：①铅锌矿化与灯影组巨厚的白云岩顶部所夹的富含有机质的黑色微晶硅质岩及同生角砾岩层密切相关;②矿体呈层状与容矿围岩整合接触,延伸规模巨大,地表露头断续长6km以上;③矿石内发育层状、纹层状、条纹一条带状、同沉积角砾状、同沉积滑动变形等沉积构造;④闪锌矿、黄铁矿等金属硫化物以及含矿硅质岩的粒度微细,80％的粒径介于0．001～0．5mm之间;⑤围岩蚀变微弱或不发育;⑥含矿层状微晶硅质岩的形成温度低(80～8612)。作者认为,黑区-雪区层状整合铅锌矿床属于典型的海底热水沉积成因(SEDEX型),是川滇黔铅锌矿集区内新发现的具有重要找矿前景的矿床类型。热水喷流-沉积成矿作用与灯影晚期在碳酸盐台地内发育的近东西向汉源-峨眉次级凹陷以及位于该凹陷中心的同生断裂带的活动有内在联系。  相似文献   

有地形存在时对流云发展的数值模拟研究   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

谷国军  王昂生  许焕斌 《气象学报》1994,52(1):90-98

本文通过应用地形转换坐标，建立了一个能够模拟复杂地形上对流云发展的二维非静力的弹性模式，并对以下几个方面进行了模拟实验：首先对初始环境场的调整适应过程进行了模拟研究，得到：在有对流云发展的情况下，只要调整适应时间大于一个浮力振荡周期（即２π／Ｎ），则此时间尺度的大小只对对流云的发展强度产生影响，而对其发展的趋势影响不大。然后我们对下述过程进行了模拟：①地形抬升对积云的触发作用；②上坡环流对已发展对流云的加强；③下坡环流对已发展对流云的减弱。模拟结果表明，模式是稳定的、可靠的。上述模拟研究为我们今后深入开展强对流云数值模拟工作打下了基础。  相似文献   

利用卫星轨道资料获取降水云团尺度的新方案   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘奇  傅云飞  王雨 《遥感学报》2010,14(4):781-796

提出一种新的统计方案,以目标面积比为核心度量指标,并参照连续圆形目标定义目标面积比意义上的等效半径,实现对目标宏观尺度大小的量化估计。此方法能有效减轻轨道截断效应所造成的目标尺度低估,可对通过计数类方法得到的目标空间尺度做出有效修正。  相似文献